Sanna Marin was defeated by Finland’s conservatives in a close race

Petteri Orpo, the leader of Finland’s conservative party, has won a three-way election race, defeating Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s center-left coalition.

“We got the biggest mandate,” said the National Coalition Party’s leader after a dramatic night in which the result gradually shifted away from Ms Marin’s Social Democrats.

Mr. Orpo received 20.8% of the vote, beating out the right-wing populist Finns Party and the centre-left.

The populists won a record 20.1% of the vote.

It is a crushing defeat for Ms Marin, who increased her party’s seats and received 19.9% of the vote.

She maintains high poll ratings and has been widely praised for steering Finland toward Nato membership and navigating her country through the Covid-19 pandemic.

The centre-left leader conceded the election shortly after the conservative leader claimed victory.

“Congratulations to the winner of the elections, congratulations to the National Coalition Party, congratulations to the Finns Party; democracy has spoken,” she told supporters.

For weeks, the three parties had been nearly level in the polls, and as the results came in, it became too close to call. Then, according to YLE projections, Petteri Orpo’s National Coalition won the most seats in parliament.

“I believe the Finnish people want change; they want change, and now I will begin negotiations, open negotiations with all parties,” he said.

The mood in the camp was euphoric, according to Matti Koivisto, political correspondent for public broadcaster YLE. “When they saw the projection, it was clear they were going to win.”

Finns Party leader Riikka Purra congratulated her centre-right rival and expressed delight at her party’s best result in its history.

“We’re still fighting for first place, but seven more seats is an excellent result.”

The Finns demonstrated their success by winning more regions than any other party in mainland Finland. Riikka Purra received the most votes of any candidate, and commentators emphasized her party’s appeal to young voters by reaching out via social media platforms such as TikTok.

Meanwhile, three other parties in the outgoing coalition incurred significant losses: the Centre Party, the Left Alliance, and the Greens.

Sanna Marin, 37, became the world’s youngest leader when she entered politics in 2019. She led a coalition of five women-led parties.

Despite her successful response to neighboring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the election was largely fought over Finland’s economy and public debt, with all mainstream parties supporting Nato membership.

Many Finns see her as a divisive figure. She came under fire last year after a video surfaced of her singing, dancing, and drinking at a party. Supporters claimed the controversy was rife with sexism, and women from all over the world shared videos of themselves dancing in solidarity.

According to YLE’s Matti Koivisto, Petteri Orpo lacks Sanna Marin’s “rock-star” qualities.

“He’s a career politician, having been in the game since the 1990s, and he’s quite stable and calm; some say he’s too dull and calm, but it works quite well in Finland.”

The conservatives will have the first chance to form a government, and if they succeed, Mr Orpo, 53, will become the next prime minister.

Under an Orpo-led government, Europe could expect a pro-European conservative from his party’s liberal center, with an emphasis on economic policy.

“A sort of dream son-in-law,” says Vesa Vares, professor of contemporary history at the University of Turku.

To run the country under Finland’s proportional representation system, he will need to win more than 100 seats in the 200-seat parliament, which will be difficult.

Mr. Orpo really only has two options: form a right-wing coalition with Riikka Purra’s nationalist Finns Party or reach an agreement with Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats.

“The Finns are a very difficult partner because they are so inexperienced, and they have MPs who are dissatisfied with almost everything,” Prof Vares says.

“The most natural thing would be to work with the Social Democrats, but [Sanna Marin] used to be on her party’s left wing, and it’s clear she doesn’t like the conservatives.”

Jenni Karimaki, a political researcher at the University of Helsinki, also notes that Ms Marin has been reluctant to state her goals.

She says the Social Democrats are conflicted because, despite increasing their parliamentary seats, they were unable to become the largest party and retain their premiership.

“However, the Finnish political culture is known for its adaptability, for its ability to negotiate and form compromises.”