Analysis: The Normalization Of Israel-Saudi Relations Is The Goal Of Hamas’s Terrorist Attack
Washington: Iran has praised and celebrated Hamas’s unprecedented strike on Israel, which appears to be intended to thwart the region’s ongoing historic normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and has the potential to significantly alter world geopolitics.
Initial reactions from Israel’s Arab neighbours to the terror acts, however, suggest that while they will continue to support the Palestinians as indicated, they do not want Saturday’s events to entirely undermine the prospects for normalcy on the table.
In the coming weeks and months, it will be crucial to keep an eye on whether Riyadh can maintain its course and whether Tel Aviv can find it in its national psyche to accommodate Palestinian aspirations to enable normalization with its other neighbors, even as it mounts a war in Palestinian territory.
This is not to imply that the fundamental causes of the conflict—their historical roots, Israel’s brutality in Gaza, Tel Aviv’s far-right turn and its negative effects on Israel’s own security readiness, Hamas’s quest for relevance and power and its terror apparatus, the disagreements over the Al-Aqsa Mosque, Palestinians’ concerns, and the lack of progress toward a workable two-state solution—aren’t at work.
But it’s important to understand where West Asian politics are at this specific moment in light of Hamas’ terrible terror acts against Israel.
The Setting For Promoting Peace
The area has transformed during the last five years.
The Abraham Accords, which enabled Israel and a number of its neighbors, most notably the UAE, to reach a diplomatic understanding, were intentionally organized, fostered, and supported by the Americans. By uniting its Sunni friends and the sole Jewish state in the world, who are becoming more unified by their shared concerns about Iran, the self-declared leader of the Shia world, the US is aiming to “lower the temperature” in the region.
A deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which would have been the most significant symbolic recognition of Israel’s right to exist from the Muslim world, would also have required Israel to be more understanding of Palestinian ambitions. This has not yet been completed because far-right fanatics who have undermined democracy and have shown no signs of letting up on their hostility in the West Bank hold Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration captive.
Regardless of what Israel would have ultimately decided regarding the Palestinian issue and whether it would have been sufficient for the Saudi crown prince and PM Mohammed bin Salman to move forward, it was evident that many in the region were not happy with the fact that these discussions were taking place under American auspices and had assumed such a serious degree of intensity.
The Assault And Its Effects
The majority of Washington-based specialists are confident that Iran’s help was necessary for Hamas’ attacks to be as large and sophisticated as they were. Attacks from Lebanon against Israel have increased. And Hamas is obviously committed in making sure Saudi Arabia doesn’t strike a deal with Israel, unlike other somewhat moderate but weaker and more dysfunctional Palestinian factions.
Such an assault on Israel is based on a straightforward calculation. Any state is obligated to respond to such horror with ferocity, let alone one that combines a profound sense of fear with unparalleled belligerence and is governed by a regime that takes pride in its strong national security credentials.
Israel will need to determine whether, and to what extent, its divisive and all-consuming politics has contributed to a scenario where its security alertness has fallen in light of this being among the worst failures of the Israeli intelligence system in its history. But the failure will also have the effect of increasing rage and the intensity of the reaction.
Even if it favors the creation of a national unity government in Israel, the US will stand by its partner since it has witnessed a rare but unusually open dialogue about the concerning tendencies in Israel’s democracy this year. Priority will be given to providing moral, political, diplomatic, and security support to Tel Aviv.
Those opposed to normalization will hope that as Israel responds, and its military action on Saturday is just the beginning of a protracted assault against Gaza, it will become more difficult for Riyadh and other potential allies of Tel Aviv to continue to be seen as supporting the normalization path.
But Riyadh’s response demonstrates that it will continue to balance its support for Palestine with its desire for regular relations with Israel. The Saudis have stated that they are closely monitoring the conflict between different Palestinian factions and Israel’s “occupation forces,” called for an immediate end to the escalation, restraint, and protection of civilians, remembered their warnings of dangers of “explosion” as a result of continued occupation and denial of rights for the Palestinian people, and reiterated the call for a two-state solution.
Though rhetorically directed towards Israel, the remark nevertheless gives leeway for the normalization process to go forward, although slowly.
The Stakes In India
India is affected by all of this. The economies of Delhi and West Asia are increasingly intertwined in several ways across the energy, migration, food, and commerce sectors, as external affairs minister S Jaishankar emphasized in Washington last week.
India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States are part of I2U2, an unprecedented effort to strengthen political and economic connections between the four nations, even though they have had bilateral relations.
The India-Middle East-European Economic Corridor (IMEC), which was introduced on the margins of the G20, is both reliant on and intended to support the Saudi-Israeli normalization process.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has unwaveringly defended Israel from the terrorist attacks. The zero-sum security paradigm that has ruled the area for decades will gradually give way to the goal of connection and prosperity between once-rivals, but Delhi will also spend in helping the region regain relative stability. However, as Saturday demonstrated, there will be plenty of fear and violence along the way to a return to normalcy.
