Ukraine War: Who and why did top-secret US docs leak?
How should we interpret the dozens of secret American Defense Department documents—including maps, charts, and pictures—that are currently making the rounds online?
The documents, some of which are labeled “top secret,” give a thorough picture of the fighting in Ukraine and include timelines and dozens of obscure military acronyms.
They describe the deaths sustained by both sides, their respective military weaknesses, and—perhaps most importantly—what their expected comparative advantages will be if and when Ukraine decides to launch its eagerly awaited spring onslaught.
How authentic are these printed sheets that have been unfurled and captured on camera—possibly on someone’s dining room table? And what new information do they impart to us or the Kremlin?
First things first: this leak of classified American information about the conflict in Ukraine is the largest since Russia’s all-out invasion 14 months ago. The consequences are enormous, even though some of the records are up to six weeks old.
According to Pentagon authorities, the documents are authentic.
Out of a dump of up to 100 documents, it looks that information on at least one of them has been hastily edited in a subsequent version, although that seems like a rather minor detail.
Over 20 of the documents were viewed by the BBC. They provide in-depth descriptions of the instruction and tools given to Ukraine as it assembles 12 new brigades for an offensive that may start in a matter of weeks.
It details the brigade readiness dates and enumerates every tank, armored vehicle, and piece of artillery that Ukraine’s Western partners are supplying.
But it adds that “equipment delivery times will impact training and readiness.”
A “mud-frozen ground timeline” is depicted on one map, detailing how the terrain is changing throughout eastern Ukraine as spring advances.
After a winter that put Ukraine’s air defenses to the test, there is also a sobering study of Kyiv’s declining air defense capability as it tries to balance its limited resources to protect civilians, vital infrastructure, and its frontline troops.
The stolen documents discuss several of Washington’s other allies in addition to the state of Ukraine’s military. The documents show internal discussions about Ukraine and other delicate topics taking place in countries ranging from South Korea to Israel.
Some of the materials are classified as top secret, while others should only be disclosed with the United States’ closest intelligence allies.
To what extent is this new?
Many of the specifics in this are well known. Simply put, there is more of it, and it is all in one spot.
Consider the death toll. It is hardly shocking to read that between 189,500 and 223,000 Russian soldiers have reportedly been killed or injured, according to US estimations.
A rough estimate given to media in recent weeks is also consistent with the similar figure for losses suffered by Ukraine, which ranges between 124,500 and 131,000.
Due to informational gaps, operational security concerns, and purposeful efforts to deceive that were likely made by both sides, the Pentagon claims to have “low confidence” in the figures in both situations.
Tellingly, this is the only location where attempts have been taken to falsify the records to make it appear as though Ukraine is suffering the most casualties.
According to a version that surfaced on a pro-Russian Telegram site, the number of Ukrainians “killed in action” (“16k-17.5k”) was added to the Russian ledger, while the figures on the Ukrainian ledger were reversed to read “61k-71.5k.”
This raises the question of who released the documents and why.
Here are some documents that have leaked.
Aric Toler of the investigative open source intelligence organization Bellingcat has already described the events surrounding how the documents left the messaging service Discord and made their way to 4Chan and Telegram.
Toler notes the leaks’ emergence on a messaging network used by gamers in early March but claims it has not yet been feasible to identify the leaks’ original source.
On March 4, during a debate on the conflict in Ukraine on a Discord server popular by Minecraft players, one user commented, “Here, have some leaked documents,” before submitting ten of them.
Although strange, it is not an uncommon type of leak.
2019 saw the publication of documents pertaining to US-UK trade relations on Reddit, 4Chan, and other websites before the UK general election.
Reddit claimed that the documents’ provenance was Russia at the time.
Another incident occurred last year when participants of the online game War Thunder regularly leaked private military documents, ostensibly in an effort to settle a dispute.
The most recent leak is more important and might be harmful.
Since Ukraine has diligently protected its “operational security,” it is inconvenient that such sensitive information has surfaced at such a crucial time.
The Zelensky administration’s ability to change the battlefield’s dynamics and create the atmosphere for eventual peace talks may depend on the success of Ukraine’s spring offensive.
Officials in Kyiv have talked about a potential Russian disinformation effort.
Other military bloggers have made the opposite claim, claiming that everything is a part of a Western scheme to deceive Russian officers.
It is crucial to note that nothing in the documents that have leaked up to this point indicates the focus or direction of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
Although Moscow’s intelligence failures have been prominent throughout the war, Kyiv should keep its adversary guessing about how the campaign will unfold in order to increase the likelihood of success. The Kremlin ought to have a pretty good idea of the scope of Ukraine’s preparations already.
