Leaked Pentagon docs imply US is pessimistic Ukraine can easily stop war against Russia

The highly classified stolen Military documents shared to social media present a dismal US opinion regarding the state of the conflict in Ukraine, citing shortcomings in Ukraine’s arsenal and air defences and projecting a stalemate in the battle for months to come.

The documents, which appear to date from February and March, outline many of Ukraine’s apparent military shortcomings as Kyiv prepares for a spring counteroffensive against Russia.

Some of the confidential documents warn that Ukraine’s medium-range air defences to defend front-line soldiers will be “completely depleted by May 23,” implying Russia might soon gain aerial superiority and Ukraine could lose the ability to deploy ground forces in a counteroffensive.

The documents also emphasise continuing concerns with Russia’s own military offensive, predicting that the result will be a stalemate between the two sides for the foreseeable future.

“Russia’s gruelling campaign of attrition in the Donbas region is likely heading towards a stalemate, defeating Mosco’s ambition to conquer the entire territory in 2023,” writes one of the classified documents.

Sources familiar with the issue told CNN the documents appear to be part of a daily intelligence briefing deck created for the Pentagon’s highest commanders, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley.

The release of the documents, many of which are marked top secret, marks a major national security breach, and the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into who may have leaked them while the Pentagon is reviewing how the leak effects US national security. In addition to the evaluation of the Ukraine war, the records feature intelligence obtained on allies and opponents alike.

Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, a CNN national security and military expert, said that the obstacles Ukraine confronts with its planned counteroffensive have been known for weeks, including the need to integrate new weapons and additional troops and guarantee that a robust supply chain is in place. He did not expect that the document leak will affect Kyiv’s preparations.

“I haven’t seen anything in the documents I’ve read that would compel me as a commander to rethink my plans,” Hertling said. “It’s given some information to the Russians in terms of unit positions and munitions and equipment capabilities, but I would hazard to assume the Russians already knew all that anyway.”

US officials have warned openly the battle might stretch on

In many aspects, the assessment of the Ukraine war is comparable to what US officials have said publicly, as top Biden administration officials have predicted the battle is expected to continue on for months, if not longer.

Nonetheless, the briefing slides outlining the difficulties Ukraine confronts despite its victories more than a year into the war are precise and merciless in their appraisal of the conflict.

An official from a nation that shares intelligence with the US under the Five Eyes arrangement previously told CNN that it was worrying to see the country’s ability to compete militarily as a result of the leaked information on the Ukraine war.

The person said: “Gains for Ukraine will be difficult to achieve, but it does not help to have the private American assessment pointing to a potential yearlong stalemate disclosed publicly.”

American and Ukrainian authorities have played down the importance of the confidential materials in public.

According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Secretary of State Antony Blinken promised Ukraine of the United States’ “ironclad” support for the nation in the wake of the Pentagon document disclosures.

According to a tweet from Kuleba on Tuesday, Blinken “reaffirmed the unwavering U.S. support and forcefully rejected any attempts to put doubt on Ukraine’s capacity to win on the battlefield” during a call.

The U.S. is still Ukraine’s reliable ally and is committed to helping us win and achieving a just peace, according to Kuleba.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the department will “throw over every rock until we uncover the source” of the stolen intelligence materials during a press conference on Tuesday.

53 leaked documents that CNN has seen all seem to have been created between mid-February and early March.

According to a recent report from CNN, at least one of the documents, which detailed the numbers of Russian and Ukrainian casualties and more than cut in half the number of Russian dead before being shared on pro-Russian Telegram channels, appeared to have been edited.

Yet, US officials have admitted that the majority of the documents seem to be authentic. A source close to Zelensky told CNN that Ukraine has already modified some of its military plans as a result of the leak.

“These documents don’t change. They paint a picture of a certain era. Both the United States and Ukraine have the capacity to alter their actions and strategies about this matter, and Ukraine has plenty of time to do so, according to House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner, who spoke to CNN’s Jake Tapper on Monday.

Moreover, new documents have appeared. Another leaked memo from February stated, according to a story in The Washington Post, that Ukraine might fall “far short” of its objectives in its anticipated spring counteroffensive due to problems with troops, ammunition, and equipment.

According to a paper dated February, the US believes Ukraine can produce 12 combat brigades for the spring counteroffensive, with three trained locally and nine trained and supplied by the US. According to the plan, six of the brigades would be prepared by the end of March, and the other six by the end of April.

The released documents contain accurate maps of the battlefield, figures on the number of soldiers killed and wounded, and estimates of the number of tanks, fighter jets, and other weapons that have been deployed as well as those that have been destroyed.

A timeframe for when the ground in Ukraine will be frozen, muddy, and conducive to movement is shown on one slide.

At Bakhmut, the scene of some of the heaviest fighting between the two sides this year, assessments of Ukrainian forces are available. In one update from February, the intelligence assessment provides information on the settlements where the Ukrainian military withdrew and the locations where it still maintained authority.